Analysis | Timberwolves offseason outlook: Randall Reed & Walker 3-choose 2? Sustainability depends on newcomers

(The original article was published on May 29, and the author is Bobby Marks, a salary expert on ESPN website. The content of the article does not represent the translator's views)

This year's playoffs are in full swing, and the lottery team's signing has also been determined. Next, we can analyze how each eliminated team should spend the offseason, including the draft, free agent market and trading market. Which teams who were eliminated are only one trade away from the championship? Which teams face major draft and trading choices? How quickly can the teams in the league rebuilding complete the reconstruction? Bobby Marks of ESPN website analyzed potential options for each team, including a look at the team’s roster status, financial status, management priorities, renewals worth paying attention to, team needs, and future draft assets.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Season record: 49 wins and 33 losses (exit in the Western Conference Finals)

Draft picks in June: No. 17 (from the Pistons), No. 31 (from the Jazz)

Free players: Julius Randall (player option), Nikil Alexander Walker, Naz Reed (player option), Joe Ingles, Josh Minnot (player option), Luca Garza (player option), Nashaun Hylander (restricted), Jesse Edwards (restricted), Teristen Newton (restricted)

First of the team lineup:

After just finished 40 games in the regular season, the Timberwolves faced two questions: Did Towns' trade make them lose the opportunity to return to the Western Conference Finals? And will the 21-19 record put the Timberwolves in danger of missing the playoffs? In the end, the Timberwolves ended the regular season with 17 wins and 4 losses, and their performance in advancing for five games in the playoffs in two consecutive rounds gave the answer. The key to this reversal is that the Timberwolves have improved their defensive efficiency to sixth in the league.

Timberwolves will enter the offseason decision-making period under the leadership of new owners Mark Lore and Rodriguez. Although the Timberwolves currently have 13 players on contracts and will also receive two draft picks before the 31st pick, Randall and key substitutes Reed and Alexander Walker may become free agents (Randall and Reed have the option to hold players). If these three players are retained, the Timberwolves' total salary may exceed US$250 million, touching the second rich line again.

Offseason Financial Status:

Downs' deal not only balances the Timberwolves' roster, but also provides the team with financial flexibility this summer. Although the Timberwolves still have to pay a luxury tax, they are expected to avoid the second tyrant line. If the player options for Reed ($15 million) and Randall ($29.5 million) and the first round pick from the Pistons, the Timberwolves still have $11 million in operation. Randall and Reed need to decide whether to execute the contract options for next season before June 29, and the same day is also the deadline for the Timberwolves to decide whether to execute the options for Minnot ($2.2 million) and Garza ($2.3 million).

Management's top priority: Will the Timberwolves be forced to choose between retaining Randall, Reed and Alexander Walker? The answer to this question may have a decisive impact on the team's lineup construction next season and in the future. For Randall and Reed, returning to the Timberwolves seems to be a high probability event. In addition to signing first and then changing, the only rebuilding Nets can provide these two players with more than $14.1 million in contracts. The real suspense is whether the Timberwolves feel that it is worth continuing to invest in them next season.

Randle's strong performance in the final stage of the regular season (average of 18.2 points in the last 21 games) continued to the first two rounds of the playoffs. He contributed 8 20+ scoring performances, averaging 23.9 points per game. But in G2 and G4 against the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals, Randall scored only 11 points in the two games. After winning the sixth man for the best last year, Naz Reed averaged 14.2 points and 6 rebounds per game this season, and his playoff substitute scored more than two consecutive years.

The two players face multiple choices: perform the player option to renew the contract, give up the player option to re-sign the new contract, or play next season with an expiration contract. They can also choose to become free agents and switch to other teams, but they will face the risk of a salary cut. If the player option is executed, both will immediately be eligible for unlimited trading. If you enter the free agent market, the Timberwolves can also use the signing first and then change.

The Timberwolves still need to weigh two key factors: ESPN predicts that nearly half of the league's teams will have salary space next year; the Timberwolves have locked in more than $110 million in the 2026-27 season on Edwards, McDaniels and Gobert.

As for Alexander Walker, considering that the Timberwolves may touch the second rich line again and the growth of rookie Terence Shannon, the priority of renewing the defender may be reduced. The defender, who attended for two consecutive seasons, averaged 9.4 points per game, shot 38.1% from three-pointers, scored in double digits in six playoffs, including 23 points against the Thunder. Alexander Walker will spark strong interest in the free agent market, with 16 teams offering a starting salary of $14.1 million (full middle class exception).

Cansel worth paying attention to:

If Randall chooses to execute the player option, he will be eligible to sign a contract renewal of up to four years of $194 million, but the salary of $43 million next season is $13 million higher than his current player option. Naz Reed can sign a four-year, $87.2 million early contract renewal from June 27, and his $15 million player option next season will be replaced by a $19 million starting salary. He can also choose to execute the player option and sign a four-year contract renewal of $94.2 million, with a salary of $21 million in the first year effective from the 2026-27 season.. Substitute guard Divincenzo is also eligible for renewal. The shooter who struggles in the playoffs (36.1% shooting percentage and 31% three-point shooting percentage) has two years left in the current contract and can renew up to three years and $64.5 million.

Other players eligible for renewal: Leonard Miller, Josh Minnot

Team needs:

The sustainability of the Timberwolves lineup depends on the growth of rookies such as Dillingham, Shannon and Clark, as well as the two signings in this June draft. Dillingham averaged 8.5 points and 3.5 assists per game during the rotation, but missed 23 games due to a right ankle injury.

Dillingham's training is a top priority, especially considering that 37-year-old Conley is about to enter the final year of his contract. Shannon scored a career-high 16 points in the G3 against the Thunder. When he scored at least 20 minutes of playing time in the regular season, he averaged 16.6 points per game.

Future Draft Assets:

Timberwolves' draft pick reserves are almost exhausted. While they can trade first-round picks and 31st picks from the Pistons this June, there are six seasons in the next seven years that will not be able to control their first-round picks. The Timberwolves' unprotected first-round pick in 2027 belongs to the Jazz or the Suns, and the first-round picks protected by the top five picks in 2029 will also be sent to one of these two teams. The Jazz also has the first round swap rights for the 2026 Timberwolves. The Spurs have the Timberwolves' first round swap rights in 2030 and will receive the Timberwolves' unprotected first round pick in 2031. As the Timberwolves triggered the second rich line this season, the Timberwolves' first round pick in 2032 has been frozen. The Timberwolves' first round picks in 2028 are only swapable and cannot be traded. In addition, the Timberwolves have four second round picks available for trading.

Original text: Bobby Marks

Compiled by: Li Taibai